A new research report from Barclays Research examines the commercial prospects of humanoid robots and projects that the global market could expand from an estimated $2–3 billion to as much as $200 billion by 2035 under optimistic assumptions. The study frames humanoid robotics as an extension of artificial intelligence into physical environments, with applications across manufacturing, logistics, healthcare, and other labour-intensive sectors.
The report attributes recent momentum in the field to advances in AI reasoning, actuator technology, and battery systems, which it says have reduced production costs by a factor of roughly 30 over the past decade. These developments are coinciding with demographic pressures, including ageing populations and persistent labour shortages, which are increasing demand for automation capable of performing repetitive and physically demanding tasks. The analysis characterizes humanoid robots as tools intended to augment human workers rather than replace them, particularly in roles that are difficult to staff.
According to the research, actuators—the mechanical components that enable movement—represent approximately half of total humanoid robot production costs. This cost structure is cited as a potential advantage for Europe, where experience in precision engineering and automotive manufacturing could support competitiveness in key parts of the supply chain. The report also notes China’s growing role in the sector, pointing to its share of new humanoid robot models and its rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity.
“Humanoid robots represent a structural shift in automation,” said Zornitsa Todorova, head of thematic fixed income, currencies and commodities research at Barclays. She added that the transition from experimental systems to commercial deployment could have wide-ranging implications for labour markets and industrial policy.
The report positions humanoid robotics within a broader theme it describes as “physical AI,” arguing that as production scales, value creation may increasingly shift from software toward hardware and component manufacturing. In this context, the analysis highlights potential impacts on suppliers of actuators, precision components, and industrial automation equipment, sectors that were less exposed to earlier phases of AI development.
Read the full report here
