Gartner projects that rising memory costs will lead to a decline in global PC and smartphone shipments in 2026, as higher component prices increase device costs and reduce demand. The research firm forecasts worldwide PC shipments will fall by 10.4% in 2026 compared with 2025 levels, while smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 8.4% over the same period. Gartner estimates that combined prices for DRAM and solid-state drives (SSD) will increase by 130% by the end of 2026. As a result, PC prices are projected to rise by 17% and smartphone prices by 13% compared with 2025.
According to Gartner, higher device prices will shift demand toward premium products while reducing overall unit volumes. “This is the lowest level of device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner.
The firm expects device replacement cycles to lengthen as a result of rising costs. PC lifetimes are projected to increase by 15% for business buyers and by 20% for consumers by the end of 2026. Gartner indicated that delayed upgrades could heighten security vulnerabilities and complicate the management of aging devices.
Memory costs are forecast to account for 23% of total PC bill-of-materials expenses in 2026, up from 16% in 2025. Gartner stated that the increase limits vendors’ ability to absorb higher component costs, reducing the viability of low-margin entry-level laptops. The sub-$500 PC segment is projected to disappear by 2028. The firm also expects that higher prices for artificial intelligence-enabled PCs will delay their anticipated 50% market penetration until 2028.
In the smartphone market, entry-level devices are expected to face greater pressure than premium models. Gartner forecasts that buyers of basic smartphones will exit the market at a rate five times faster than premium buyers in 2026, as consumers turn to refurbished or second-hand devices or extend replacement cycles. Premium smartphones are expected to be less affected because of higher margins.
Gartner stated that vendors may need to prioritize profitability over shipment volumes as memory price inflation compresses margins. “Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimise pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards,” Atwal said.
