Production of drones and autonomous robots could increase sharply by the late 2030s, creating new demand for some raw materials used in motors, batteries, electronics and structural components, according to researchers writing in the Cell Press journal Chem Circularity.
The researchers estimated how producing either 1 million or 10 million drones or robots annually would affect supply chains for 18 raw materials in the United States and globally. They compared those estimates with 2024 demand levels for the materials. The study found that higher production volumes would not create unmanageable pressure for most of the materials examined. However, the researchers identified several areas where demand could create supply risks if manufacturers and technology developers do not plan ahead.
The highest-risk material identified was neodymium-praseodymium, or NdPr, a rare earth material used in permanent magnets for drone and robot motors. The researchers found that demand could be especially high for larger humanoid robots, which require larger motors. Producing 1 million large robots annually could increase demand for NdPr by about 20% compared with U.S. consumption in 2024, according to the study. The researchers also identified carbon fiber and magnesium, which are used in lightweight structural frames, as potential supply concerns in both U.S. and global markets. They noted that aluminum is a less expensive and more widely available substitute, meaning those supply risks would depend on the extent of demand for higher-end designs.
Anthony Ku, a chemical engineer associated with Princeton University and the study’s first author, said the research was intended to help manufacturers anticipate potential constraints. “By looking ahead, we’re trying to help industry prepare for potential problems and make supply chain challenges less painful down the road,” Ku said. The researchers said drone and robotics manufacturers could reduce supply risks by aligning their sourcing strategies with industries that already use the same materials, including electric vehicles, consumer electronics and telecommunications. They also said products should be designed to make materials easier to recover, recycle and reuse at the end of their operating lives.
The study noted that recycling may be more feasible for drones and robots than for some other technologies that use similar materials because drones and robots typically have shorter operating lifespans than assets such as wind turbines. The researchers estimated lifespans of three to five years for drones and five to 10 years for humanoid robots, compared with more than 20 years for wind turbines. Chris Greig, a Princeton University chemical engineer and co-author of the study, said supply chain risks appeared manageable but still required attention because the same materials are used in digital technologies, decarbonization and defense. The researchers also recommended earlier coordination among technology developers to identify possible material substitutions and backup plans before shortages occur.
